The Price is Wrong
If the probability that you will not bust on the next spin exceeds the probability that you will win by staying where you are at, then you should spin again.
This was incorrect. Instead, the assumption and logic should have been as follows:
If the probability that you will not bust on another spin AND you end up winning exceeds the probability that you will win by staying where you are at, then you should spin again.
Under this assumption, the calculations are more difficult, but doable.
Ego is the Enemy
I’m currently reading Ego is the Enemy by Ryan Holiday. This fits perfectly with what I was trying to accomplish with the last few posts.
When I posted about how to escape from prison, I had thought about that problem all week, bouncing ideas with a colleague who checked my work and kept me in line. When I finally stumbled upon the solution, he confirmed it worked before I wrote it out. In other words, I was able to keep my ego in check.
Now, guess what happened with the post about the Price is Right? I didn’t confirm with my colleague, and get a second opinion. I was confident in my answer and let my ego take control. My ego is not on my side, and it would be very good for me to remember that.
Posting an incorrect solution for the world to see was a great reminder.